“August is traditionally bad on the stock market, but who knows? »
Dennis Lanton: Hello, I am happy to see you again for this new cat. With a Cac 40 without much relief this Monday, but what could be more normal, the trend has to rest a little and we are finally entering the summer period, after the 31 releases within the Cac 40 and an increase of almost 9% in the last month .
Jean-Marc: Hello Mr. Lantoine, I hope you have fully recovered from the Covid. What do you think is the development you can expect from the market in the next month? Could you follow up the Buyer’s Guide for the attached Cac 40 SK14C? This has lost more than 50% since the July 4th and 15th councils. Good for you.
Hello Jean-Marc and thank you very much, yes, I am totally recovered and in great shape!
As for the Cac 40, I’d be more inclined to believe that in the short term, if only after that sharp increase in July, it could top out even in the second half of the year alone.
The catalyst associated with corporate publications that have performed surprisingly well elsewhere in Europe is now behind us, as are central bank announcements that, particularly the Fed, were looking to accept a bit more pigeons and so prepare this month of August. The next rate hike could be capped at 50 basis points instead of the 75 basis points seen in the last two sessions. The message, if understood as such, was appreciated on Wall Street.
We must also not forget that August is statistically the worst month of the year after September, with an average value of -1.16% (-1.38% for September). 20 times in the 33 years since the Cac 40 was founded, the market ended in the red this month of August.
The summer could be quiet for once until the next inflation figures, especially in the USA for August and September, are available, which will also be known before the Fed’s next decision.
Because of this, I would tend to hold onto the puts that we previously recommended, even if they are currently losers. I didn’t think that we would crack the 6,200 points so easily.
Iban: Hello, it looks like we are on a very technical bounce off a high of 6,500. What can we expect at these levels in a context that will most likely push Europe into recession? And what would be a lower entry point you would suggest to start buying? Many Thanks.
Additional question to the previous one. If the Cac 40 does fall back this month, and if, I mean, if we’re in an ideal scenario of inflation numbers coming down over the next few months from the start of the school year, I see two interesting levels to position yourself on: that of 6,100 points, which corresponds to the lows of early May and the small rise at the end of June. The other, lower one is of course the threshold of 5,800 points. But that still assumes a 9% decline in the Cac 40, meaning all of July’s gain is lost. If we wait for a quiet summer, we probably won’t come back.
Annoying: Last week I asked a question about Somfy. They replied that there would be an article on the subject in the weekly newspaper. But nothing about Somfy in the latest issue of the weekly. Can you tell us what to think of the Somfy title? Many Thanks.
Hello, yes I thought that in our last weekly newspaper there would be an article dedicated to Somfy, but the publications of the week were too numerous. That’s why I’m answering you today, because then, like every year at this time, we’re taking a break from our chats.
The stock tumbled 12.9% on Friday, July 22, after the release of what were seen as disappointing second-quarter sales. Billings rose just 1.2% and actually fell 0.1% on a comparable basis, compared to a 9.7% increase in the first quarter and 15.7% in 2021.
The company had indicated on that occasion that the operating margin, to be announced on September 7th, would decline from the 26.6% achieved last year, a level considered exceptionally high.
Since this publication, the promotion has increased slightly, but remains far from the 180 euros recorded at the beginning of the year.
However, we fear that purchasing power problems will weigh on the group’s activities in the coming quarters. A sale therefore seems more cautious, especially since the valuation ratios remain relatively high despite the price decline.
Rivaud: Hello, what should we make of Walmart after the last bad stock market reaction?
In fact, the recent release disappointed again with a renewed slump in stock markets as the spending power of American consumers, who are forced to favor groceries and premium products at the expense of discretion products that also offer better margins.
Nevertheless, in our last weekly newspaper, we maintained our buy recommendation from a long-term perspective based on an enterprise value for gross operating surplus of 12 times for 2023, which we think is attractive.
Trebord: On July 1st you signaled the end of the run for the FDJ29CS turbo calls (code B767S), these are still being noted and it appears that the deactivation barrier has not been reached. Should they be kept?
But yeah you’re right, I also see that it’s still rating. We made a mistake on our last position check and I’m glad about that… We will check this position again this week. Thank you for your comment.
Nicholas: Hi Dennis. I own Vivendi shares and the stock has fallen a lot lately. Selling Editis doesn’t please too much… Do you think the title should be kept and that it can be regained? The stock is trading at 9.30 compared to 12 6 months ago. Kind regards. Nicholas.
Yes, that announcement appears to have disappointed investors, and as such it overshadows semi-annual data that we thought was strong.
Sales reached €4.9 billion, organic growth of 5.4%. Adjusted operating profit was EUR 412 million, an increase of 31.5% in one year.
Havas was the main contributor over the semester ahead of Canal+, while the six-month integration of Prisma also contributed to the performance.
In the event of a recession and a sharp deterioration in the economic environment, Vivendi remains cautious but ready to adapt and reduce its costs if necessary.
If the distribution of Editis should be done, it is necessary to pay attention to the method used.
Jean Var: Hello. What do you think of Fluxys Belgium? Heartfelt.
Hello JeanVar, unfortunately we do not follow this value.
Vandendriessche Y: I own 350 Albioma shares, should I sell or not with the current offer? Is there a retention risk?
The offer ended last Wednesday, July 27th. I refer to the detailed article we published on this purpose last week. We recommend holding the securities unless there is a strong capital gain.
Well, our chat hour is coming to an end. As I told you before, the cat will have a little vacation too. Our next conversation is at the end of the month, on the 29th, and you will have the pleasure of meeting Rémi for this back-to-school session. Many thanks for your loyalty. I’ll tell you very soon.