Supermarket: back-to-school shopping, bad news for the French…

La Dépêche spoke to Olivier Dauvers, journalist and retail specialist. He has been analyzing the situation since the beginning of the crisis. Today he can take stock of the products that have risen the most. Even better, it can tell us whether or not prices in our supermarkets are about to fall. And unfortunately, inflation is likely to continue in the coming months.

Products have increased enormously in supermarkets.

It is a well-known fact that prices rise due to inflation. ” For food, all indicators show that the increase is 7-10%‘ the journalist reminds us. But some products gain weight much more than others. But which? ” Grain-based products, whether direct grain such as pasta, flour or biscuits, or indirect grain such as poultry or pork. 70% of the cost price of a pig or poultry is feed. The products in the poultry delicatessen sector increased the most. The increases have been over 25% since January 1st. At the same time, the price of wheat is 25/30% higher than last year“.

The journalist can tell us which product has risen the most since the crisis began. ” Fleury Michon chicken breast is +38%, Fruit d’or oil is +37% and many everyday products are over 30%“.

But during this very dark period, have the prices of certain products fallen in our supermarkets? It may surprise you, but yes. ” Only one product is cheaper: Buitoni pizzas (which made the headlines because of a health scandal, editor’s note). They have fallen by 2.5 to 3% within a year. There is one category that is growing at a much slower rate than average: baby products. Both diapers, formula milk and baby food. This is a category in which distributors try their best, because Families with small children are very big consumers, so we must not lose these customers“.

Do supermarkets benefit from inflation?

The journalist takes advantage of his interview to point out that this is a completely historic inflation for two reasons. ” This is unheard of in the dual dimension of time and violence. We have never seen such a sharp increase in price in such a short period of time.. It’s not harmful or slow, it’s violent and brutal“.

Are the price increases justified? We can ask ourselves this question. But for Olivier Dauvers, in most cases they are. ” When we are in a period of high inflation, there is always opportunism. The economy wants it. Some of the players, admittedly a minority, are benefiting from it. But most of the increases are due to increases in resources, energy and transport. Are they all justified? The answer is no“.

So don’t think that the big distribution supermarkets are filling their pockets today. ” The level of competition between dealers is such that it benefits the consumer. And so much the better“.

Is this time of crisis coming to an end soon?

The journalist says we made it “three quarters of the way up”. What does that mean ? That prices will continue to rise. ” Average 2 to 3%“. For him it is inevitable that average inflation will exceed 10, 11, 12%. ” All manufacturers have not yet passed on their new prices. Once they have done so, prices will still move. Private label will be more affected than big brands“. The prices in the supermarkets are not yet ready to fall.

Economists indicated at the beginning of the crisis that inflation would continue until 2023. The journalist seems to agree with them. The government has indicated that the peak is behind us, but that is probably not the case yet.